Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 0.44% and -0.44% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.22% and –0.22% . Yesterday´s return was 0.08% , well below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently neutral (0 ) for the month-on-month change and -2 for price indexation. This means that we are in the negative phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. According to the monthly MA, EUR/USD is in bearish sentiment, after falling below it last week. As we can see in the chart below, the 6 months and annual MAs are still in bullish sentiment. In the event of a decline, the 6-month MA can be an important support for the exchange rate.
In the beginning of this year, there have been more downward trends, with a maximum of 3 consecutive days. Downward trends did not also exceed more than 3 days in the same period. The maximum in the measured period is 5 days in downtrend and 7 days in uptrend. We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (0.65% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 0.34%. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -1.0% and 1.0% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (1.50% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
Basic technical analysis still supports medium-term bullish sentiment, as the exchange rate creates higher highs and higher lows. However, this has been corrected since the end of May. We can see a bullish divergence between the market price and the RSI. EUR/USD is currently approaching the important psychological level of 1.2100 , where the short-term moving average is also located. In the event of a further decline, the demand zone (green rectangle), where there is also the long-term moving average and Fibonacci retracement level of 23.60% could be the support for bulls.