Crude is building tension while waiting for new data

The crude prices should be safe

Fears about the expansion of the world economy were muted by a small increase in oil prices on Thursday. The prospect of a third consecutive weekly gain, as OPEC+ targets additional production cutbacks and US crude stockpiles, are down.

According to the reference case in the most recent Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023) by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the output of gasoline and other liquids in the US is anticipated to increase by 10% from 2022 through 2050.

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These rises are to be propelled by increased shipments of completed goods and global demand. The reference scenario also makes the supposition that by the year 2050, the price of Brent crude oil will have risen to $101 per barrel.

The US plans to expand its capacities

At its Beaumont facility, Exxon began a new crude oil distillation unit this week, increasing its daily output to nearly 620,000 bpd. According to Reuters, this makes the Beaumont plant, behind Aramco’s Motiva, the second-largest refinery in the US.

The new facility itself will handle light petroleum from the Permian and have a daily capacity of 250,000 barrels of crude. Refinery growth is unusual in the US, where closing refineries or converting them to biofuel production facilities has become the pattern in recent years.

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The Beaumont Exxon refinery’s growth will significantly increase the country’s refining capacity, but it will only be a temporary increase. The Lyondell Basell closure of a plant in Houston later this year will essentially cancel out Exxon’s growth. The Lyondell plant is capable of producing more than 260,000 bpd.

Canadian liquid gold is top shelf

A recent global survey reveals that buyers prefer Canadian oil as the top option for democracy and environmental reasons. In a poll of 24,000 individuals from 28 countries, Canada came out on top as the favored energy provider, thanks to its solid image and dependability as a nation far away from any dangerous international hotspots.

55% of respondents said that Canada was their favored provider, while Norway came in second with 53% and the US with 52%. According to the Financial Post, 40% of respondents preferred the Middle East, closely followed by Mexico, with Venezuela, Russia, and China finishing last on the list.

Trading moves sideways before the NFPs

A gallon of Brent oil increased by 0.4%, to $85.30. WTI, the American crude oil, saw a gain of 0.4%, to $80.93.

Due to the Good Friday vacation, there is no trading on Friday. This will build even more pressure around these crucial levels.

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The bulls are barely holding the $80 level for the last four days after the huge pump. This is the resistance for the time being, which in case broken, could be moved towards the 200-day average of $83.67. 

The bears stand ready to mash the sell button and fight back. In case the oil would drop, we can expect a larger correction within the trading zone ($70-80), toward the $75 support. 

WTI oil 1D chart, source: tradingview.com, author’s analysis