Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.62% and -1.56% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.82% and -0.77% . Yesterday´s return was only -0.77% , well below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently positive (1 ) for the month-on-month change and 3 for price indexation. This means that we are in a positive short-term phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The estimated cycles development based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, medium- and long-term MAs are still in bearish sentiment. However, the monthly MA could be an important support in event of a further decline.
Our estimated Earnings Power Value (EPV) is 349 USD and the Growth Value (GV) is approximately the same. The potential opportunity for growth is based on the value of EPV and % of reinvested earnings. NAV is represented by the Total Stockholders’ equity. The following chart uses the value from the last fiscal year.
We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (3.15% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 2.98% , which is very close to the average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -3.50% and 3.50% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (4.00% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
The basic technical analysis points to a declining trend, as the market price has been creating lower lows and lower high since the end of 2020. Therefore, according to our estimate of intrinsic value, the market price is well below the negative (261 USD ) scenario. The positive scenario (492 USD ) estimates the intrinsic value at new historical highs. The last dynamic rebound, after a decline of almost 60% , began in the demand zone (green rectangle). The psychological level 170 along with the short-term moving average can also be a very strong technical area.