Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.03% and -1.07% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.53% and -0.50% . Friday´s return was 2.18% . Our scoring is currently positive (1 ) for the month-on-month change and 1 for price indexation. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . Indexation is currently in a slightly positive phase of the cycle. The estimated cycles development based on our analytical system is shown in the following chart.
Source: WALFIR
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. The XPT/USD has had a positive upward momentum in recent days. Therefore, as we can see in the chart below, all MAs still support bullish sentiment.
Source: WALFIR
Since the beginning of this year, we have witnessed more growing trends, with the maximum level reaching 6 consecutive days. This is also the overall maximum for the last 3 years. The downward trends did not exceed more than 5 days in the same period. The total maximum in the measured period (last 3 years) is 7 days. We could use the average annual ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (3.65% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 3.02% . Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -2.5% and 2.0% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
Source: WALFIR
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (3.50% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
Source: WALFIR
Basic technical analysis still supports medium-term bullish sentiment, as the price of a commodity creates higher lows and higher highs. The XPT/USD recently rebounded from the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.60% . This scenario could also support the divergence between price development and the RSI, which was created from November to March. Price level 1 250 may represent short-term resistance. After breaking this level, the psychological level of 1 300 can be tested. However, if the price does not break above 1 250 and, on the contrary, begins to fall, the next stop could be the psychological level at 1 100 or the demand zone (green rectangle), where the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.20% is also, along with a long-term moving average and another strong level of 1 000 .
Source: TradingView
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