Trending
Commodities
  • XCU
    3.8 USD -1.11%
  • XPD
    1776 USD -1.04%
  • XPT
    990 USD -2.05%
  • ALU
    2512.21 USD -1.74%
  • RICE
    16.86 USD -3.23%
  • BRENTOIL
    80.17 USD -4.1%
  • SOYBEAN
    14.67 USD 0.35%
  • NG
    5.43 USD -4.58%
  • WHEAT
    324.17 USD -2.5%
  • WTIOIL
    74.82 USD -4.43%
  • XAG
    22.21 USD -3.36%
  • XAU
    1772.17 USD -1.37%

XCU/USD statistical and technical analysis

The current price of XCU/USD - Copper Spot US Dollar is 4.4697 (July 30, 2021). This commodity is currently after dynamic growth and is approaching an important level. Therefore, we will now look at statistical and technical analyzes.

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.25% and -1.20% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.63% and -0.58% . Friday´s return was -0.88% , well below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently negative (-1 ) for the month-on-month change and -3 for price indexation. This means that we are in the very first negative phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.

Copper daily price indexation Source: WALFIR

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. XCU/USD has risen above short-term and medium-term MAs in recent weeks. Therefore, as we can see in the chart below, all MAs support bullish sentiment.

Copper daily price development Source: WALFIR

Since our last analysis, we have witnessed more upward trends that did not exceed 4 consecutive days. The total maximum in the measured period (last 3 years) is 11 days. Downward trends in recent months have not exceeded more than 3 days. The total maximum for the last 3 years is 12 days. We could use the average annual ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (1.77% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 1.34% , which is below average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -2.5% and 2.5% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

XCU/USD daily return distribution Source: WALFIR

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (3.00% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

Copper low to high distribution Source: WALFIR

The basic technical analysis currently supports short-term bullish sentiment, as the commodity price has been rising dynamically since mid-July. However, volumes increased only slightly. The XCU/USD is currently approaching the important psychological level of 4.6500 , which could be resistance to the price. The divergence between price development and the RSI could also motive short-term bears. However, the price could be supported by a short-term moving average. In the event of a further decline, the demand zone (green rectangle) could be important for bulls.

Copper basic technical analysis Source: TradingView

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...

Comments

Comments are closed.