Super Micro Computer (SMCI) – basic stock analysis

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 2.09% and -2.10% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 1.07% and -0.98% . Yesterday´s return was only -1.26% . Our scoring is currently negative (-1 ) for the month-on-month change and 0 for price indexation. This means that we are in the middle of a short-term negative phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The estimated cycles development based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, all MAs are still in bullish sentiment. Short- and medium-term MAs currently act as support for the market price.

Our estimated Earnings Power Value (EPV) is 32 USD and the Growth Value (GV) is approximately the same. The potential opportunity for growth is based on the value of EPV and % of reinvested earnings. NAV is represented by the Total Stockholders' equity. The following chart uses the value from the last fiscal year.

We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (3.14% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 3.19% , which is very close to the average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -4.00% and 4.80% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (6.75% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

The basic technical analysis points to the stabilization phase, when we wait for the next dynamic movement up or down. The current market price is between the neutral (34 USD – blue highlight) and positive (40 USD – green highlight) scenario according to our estimate of intrinsic value. The negative scenario (31 USD – red highlight) estimates the intrinsic value in the demand zone (green rectangle), where is also the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.20% . The psychological level of 30.00 can also be a very strong technical support. Both moving averages have been used to support the market price since the summer.