Daily chart shows no news
Having looked at daily chart, we can see that the main support at around 28 000 – 30 000 USD is holding on. This support is absolutely crucial if we want to continue in the bull run.
Bitcoin is still moving in bullish channel. Eventhough it looks like it is slowly losing ground, the overall structure is still bullish and any bounce from the support can prove that. The question, however, still remains, why the proper bounce is not coming? The answer is that the market is in rather boring phase. After a significant rise for past few months, the situation changed and we are in a bit of a sideways movement.
This is also interesting due to the psychology. When we saw a sharp fall below 30 000 USD, almost everyone believed in quick retracement back and continuation of a bull run. However, now its more than 2 months ever since we saw the sharp fall and we are still seeing practically the same price levels. The only thing that changed is the perception of retail traders, who switched from believing we are in a bull market, to more thinking about bear market
If we look at a 4H chart, we can see that the chart has a space to fall more. For us to see any significant change one of these 2 scenarios would need to play out:
- Bearish – fall below the aforementioned support and close a daily candle below it.
- Bullish – break the channel upwards and make a new High. Then we could be talking about the break of the channel.
Bitcoin has not moved anywhere in the past few weeks, but this state cannot continue forever. What usually happens is that at the exact moment, when most of the retail traders start to short the market or stop trading, significant movement happens. The volatility index is also very close to its minimum values, which means that we can only assume that sharper movement is coming.