70.04 USD -2.02%
  • XAG
    23.96 USD -0.14%
  • XAU
    2010.5 USD 0.48%
  • XCU
    3.73 USD -1.34%
  • XPD
    1478 USD -0.78%
  • XPT
    1048 USD 0.64%
  • ALU
    2243.47 USD -2.23%
  • RICE
    18 USD -1.75%
    74.17 USD -1.32%
    14.35 USD -0.66%
  • NG
    2.27 USD 0.27%
    256.22 USD -1.15%

XPT/USD statistical and technical analysis

Recent fundamentals of supply and demand for platinum give us a negative view of this commodity as demand has declined globally and supply levels have risen. The current price of XPT/USD – Platinum Spot US Dollar is 953.68 (November 27, 2021). Let us therefore now turn to statistical and technical analyzes.

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.04% and -1.06% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.53% and -0.51% . Friday´s return was -4.18% , which is almost the third standard deviation. It was a very negative day for this commodity. Our scoring is currently very negative (-3 ) for the month-on-month change and 0 for price indexation. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . Indexation is currently in the extreme of a declining phase of the cycle. The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical system is shown in the following chart.

XPT/USD daily price indexation Source: WALFIR

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, all XPT/USD MAs currently support bearish sentiment. In the event of growth, monthly and 6-month MAs can be the price resistance.

XPT/USD daily price development Source: WALFIR

Since our last analysis, we have witnessed higher downward trends. They did not exceed 5 days. The total maximum in the measured period (last 3 years) is 7 days. Upward trends did not exceed more than 4 days in the same period. The total maximum for the last 3 years is 6 days. We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (3.20% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 4.02% , which is above average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -2.40% and 2.40% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

XPT/USD daily return distribution Source: WALFIR

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (3.60% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

XPT/USD daily low to high distribution Source: WALFIR

Since the beginning of this year, the basic technical analysis has supported bearish sentiment as the commodity price creates lower lows and lower highs. However, the market price is currently in an important area of the demand zone (green rectangle), where are the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.00% and the psychological level of 1 000.00 . In addition, there is a divergence between the price development and the RSI created since September. However, if the price falls below the zone, we can see new lows of the year.

XPT/USD basic technical analysis Source: TradingView

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...


Comments are closed.