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XPT/USD statistical and technical analysis

Platinum metal is mostly used in autocatalysts, jewellry, as well as for medical and industrial purposes. Rising inflation could also support its market price. The current price of XPT/USD – Platinum Spot US Dollar is 1 026.11 (October 08, 2021). Let us, therefore, now turn to statistical and technical analyzes.

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.03% and -1.08% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.53% and -0.51% . Friday´s return was 4.78% , more than the third standard deviation. It was a very positive day for the bulls. Our scoring is currently positive (1 ) for the month-on-month change and 1 for price indexation. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . Indexation is currently in a growing phase of the cycle. The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical system is shown in the following chart.

XPT/USD daily price indexation Source: WALFIR

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. In the case of longer-term MAs, XPT/USD is in bearish sentiment. However, the monthly MA again supports bulls.

XPT/USD daily price development Source: WALFIR

Since our last analysis, we have witnessed higher downward trends, even though the price is higher. They did not exceed 4 days. The total maximum in the measured period (last 3 years) is 7 days. Upward trends did not exceed more than one day in the same period. The total maximum for the last 3 years is 6 days. We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (3.27% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 4.29% , well above average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -2.40% and 2.40% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

XPT/USD daily return distribution Source: WALFIR

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (3.60% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

XPT/USD daily low to high distribution Source: WALFIR

Since the beginning of this year, the basic technical analysis has supported bearish sentiment as the price of the commodity creates lower lows and lower highs. However, a recent rebound from an important area may have finally motivated the bulls. Yesterday, XPT/USD bounced off the demand zone (green rectangle), where are the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.00% and the psychological level of 1 000.00 . In addition, it climbed above the short-term moving average. The bullish scenario also supported the divergence between price development and the RSI created since June. However, we can see the creation of the opposite divergence, which could be helped by the resistance created by the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.20% .

XPT/USD basic technical analysis Source: TradingView

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...

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