70.04 USD -2.02%
  • XAG
    23.96 USD -0.14%
  • XAU
    2010.5 USD 0.48%
  • XCU
    3.73 USD -1.34%
  • XPD
    1478 USD -0.78%
  • XPT
    1048 USD 0.64%
  • ALU
    2243.47 USD -2.23%
  • RICE
    18 USD -1.75%
    74.17 USD -1.32%
    14.35 USD -0.66%
  • NG
    2.27 USD 0.27%
    256.22 USD -1.15%

XCU/USD statistical and technical analysis

The current price of XCU/USD - Copper Spot US Dollar is 4.1220 (June 18, 2021). This commodity is currently under correction and, after a dynamic decline, is approaching an important zone. Therefore, we will now look at statistical and technical analyzes.

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.25% and -1.20% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.63% and -0.58% . Friday´s return was -1.49% , which is slightly less than the 1st standard deviation. Our scoring is currently neutral (0 ) for the month-on-month change and 0 for price indexation. This means that we are in the very last negative phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.

XCU/USD daily price indexation Source: WALFIR

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. In the case of monthly MA, XCU/USD is clearly in bearish sentiment. The 6 months MA could be support for the price. The annual MA still supports bullish sentiment.

XCU/USD daily price development Source: WALFIR

Since the beginning of the year, we have witnessed more upward trends that did not exceed 6 consecutive days. The total maximum in the measured period (last 3 years) is 11 days. Downward trends in recent months have not exceeded more than 2 days. The total maximum for the last 3 years is 12 days. We could use the average annual ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (1.79% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 3.57% , which is almost twice the average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -2.5% and 2.5% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

XCU/USD daily return distribution Source: WALFIR

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (3.00% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

XCU/USD daily low to high distribution Source: WALFIR

The basic technical analysis shows short-term bearish sentiment, as the price of the commodity has been declining dynamically since the beginning of May. Above average volumes have also occurred in the last 4 days. XCU/USD is currently in the demand zone (green rectangle), where are also the psychological level of 4.0000 and the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.60% . However, the divergence between price development and the RSI could motivate bulls.

XCU/USD basic technical analysis Source: TradingView

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...


Comments are closed.