Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 0.76% and -0.77% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.40% and -0.36% . Friday´s return was 0.85% , which is below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently slightly negative (-1 ) for the month-on-month change and 0 for price indexation. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 , which means that we estimate the extreme of the declining phase of the cycle. The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical system is shown in the following chart.
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. According to all MAs, XAU/USD is in bearish sentiment because it is below them. In the event of a rebound, 6-month and annual MAs may be a resistance to the market price.
Since our last analysis, we have witnessed more upward trends, with the maximum level reaching 6 consecutive days. However, the maximum increase was 8 days in the measured period. The downward trend in recent weeks have not exceeded more than 5 days. This is also the maximum for the last 3 years. We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (1.36% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 1.20% , which is almost average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -1.6% and 1.6% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (2.50% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
Basic technical analysis still supports short-term bearish sentiment after November’s dynamic decline. XAU/USD is currently again very close to the support level of 1 760 , where is also the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.00% . The price is also below short-term and long-term moving averages. However, there is a divergence between price development and the RSI that could support bullish scenario. If it continues to decline, the demand zone (green rectangle), where are also the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.80% and the psychological level of 1 700 , could also provide more support for the bulls, as in March, early August and September.