Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 3.06% and -2.78% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 1.48% and -1.26% . Today´s return was only 0.73% , well below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently positive (2 ) for the month-on-month change and 0 for price indexation. This means that we are in the extreme of a positive short-term phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The estimated cycles development based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, all MAs are currently in bullish sentiment after the market price has risen above the monthly MA.
Our estimated Earnings Power Value (EPV) is 113 USD and the Growth Value (GV) is approximately the same. The potential opportunity for growth is based on the value of EPV and % of reinvested earnings. NAV is represented by the Total Stockholders' equity. The following chart uses the value from the last fiscal year.
We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (2.53% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 1.35% , which is well below average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -6.25% and 6.25% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (10.50% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
The basic technical analysis points to a sideways trending this year. The channel ranges from about 88 USD up to 102 USD . The lower boundary of the channel is also formed by the psychological level. According to our estimate of intrinsic value, the market price is currently slightly above the negative (96 USD – red highlight) but still below the neutral (126 USD – blue highlight) scenario. In addition, the positive scenario (160 USD ) estimates the intrinsic value at new historical highs. The last upward rebound was very consistent, however, the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.80% together with the divergence between the price development and the RSI could slow down the bulls a bit.