The situation on the 1M chart
After 3 months, we finally closed the positive candle which is the first impulse for the price to go up. As I have said many times, the growth we saw in winter and spring was really unconventional, because we have been growing for half a year. From this point of view, it only made sense that “punishment” has to come. At this point, we can see 3 classic market cycles. Growth, decline, and all we lack now is a consolidation in which we might be right now.
That is the reason why I would wait with any great expectations regarding the BTC price during August or even during September. Even if BTC would have closed in red this month, it would not mean anything. The only thing that might be considered as a problem would be closing the body of the candle below $ 34,800 or creating a new LOW.
Figure 1: Technical analysis of BTC on 1M chart
The weekly chart might be the right place to look
The monthly chart did not tell us that much. However, it told us that the bulls have finally shown strength and will not let go of the $ 30,000 threshold easily. So let’s find the answer on the weekly chart.
Last week was very important for Bitcoin in several respects. On the weekly candle, we have:
- Closed above EMA21 and EMA34
- Created a new peak with the wick
- Created a new peak with the body of the candle
The ideal situation would be if the body of the candle closed above the level of 41,252 USD, which did not happen. Despite the fact that the chart is now, of course, more bullish, we are still in the range between 28,584 – 41,282 USD. It is still true that if we definitely exceed the upper range limit, then the bull market will continue. The same goes for the lower limit and the bear market. However, as I said about the monthly chart, I would expect a bigger fight, at this point. I think we will be in this rank for some time before we finally break the upper limit.
However, the bear market is definitely not over yet as it is still a valid scenario. If we dropped to somewhere around $ 30,000 again at this stage, it would be very bad. Now it is best to stay at least at $ 35,000. The longer the price stays at the upper range limit, the higher the chance of it breaking through and going up.
Figure 2: Technical analysis of BTC on a 1W chart
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