Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 2.96% and -2.76% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 1.44% and -1.33% . Today´s return was only -0.72% , well below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently neutral (0 ) for the month-on-month change and 1 for price indexation. This means that we are in the middle of a positive short-term phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The estimated cycles development based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, all MAs are currently in bearish sentiment after the market price recently fell below them.
Our estimated Earnings Power Value (EPV) is USD 121 and the Growth Value (GV) is approximately the same. The potential opportunity for growth is based on the value of EPV and % of reinvested earnings. NAV is represented by the Total Stockholders' equity. The following chart uses the value from the last fiscal year.
We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (2.85% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 1.32% , which is well below average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -6.00% and 6.00% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (9.00% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
The basic technical analysis points to a sideways trending this year. The main channel ranges from about USD 72 to USD 88 . The level of Fibonacci retracement of 23.60% is very close to the upper limit and therefore acts as a resistance to the market price. The lower limit of channel is formed by the psychological level. The demand zone (green rectangle) together with the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.00% confirms its importance. According to our estimate of the intrinsic value, the market price is currently above the negative (USD 75 – red highlight) but still below the neutral (USD 82 – blue highlight) scenario. The positive scenario (USD 98 ) estimates the intrinsic value at the highs of early 2021 .