Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 2.37% and -2.18% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 1.13% and -1.01% . Yesterday´s return was only 0.04% . Our scoring is currently positive (1 ) for the month-on-month change and 2 for price indexation. This means that we are in the short-term positive phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The estimated cycles development based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, all MAs are still in bearish sentiment. In the case of growth, the annual MA can be an important resistance to the market price.
Our estimated Earnings Power Value (EPV) is 164 USD and the Growth Value (GV) is approximately 228 USD . The potential opportunity for growth is based on the value of EPV and % of reinvested earnings. NAV is represented by the Total Stockholders' equity. The following chart uses the value from the last fiscal year.
We could use the average ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (2.79% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 2.99% , which is very close to the average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -4.80% and 4.80% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (6.75% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
The basic technical analysis still points to almost a year of sideways trading. The channel is created from approximately 100 to 120 USD . Very strong technical support could be the psychological level of 105 USD , where the last rebound also took place. In addition, we can clearly see a bullish divergence between the market price and the RSI. Volumes were also above average on Monday. The BBY is currently approaching the important psychological level of 110 USD and the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.60% . Both moving averages could be a resistance to the market price in the event of further growth.