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Save the dates – most important macro events of 2023

In the article below, you can find the market-moving events of 2023. Which dates should you definitely have in your calendar?

Here are the most essential macro events that will shape the markets’ direction over the course of this year.

FOMC Meetings

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a part of the Federal Reserve System that directs open market operations and decides the direction of monetary policy in the United States. 

The Fed is widely expected to end the rate hike cycle in 2023, pushing federal funds to the 5.00 – 5.50% range. This is also known as the “terminal rate,” i.e., the final level of the federal funds rate.

The central bank has reiterated several times that it does not plan to cut interest rates in 2023 and that they need to keep the rates elevated for longer. However, the market already expects rate cuts in the second half of the year, as well as the new round of quantitative easing. 

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It will be interesting to watch who is right – whether investors and the central bank will fold and start loosening monetary policy again; or whether the Fed and monetary policy will stay tight throughout the whole year.

Another important event tied to the central banks will be the regular annual conference in Wyoming, which usually takes place in August and offers more insight into the central banks’ future plans.

ECB meetings

The monetary policy of the ECB is rather similar to the Fed. However, the ECB is one or two-quarters behind the US central bank. Therefore, the market expects a couple more rate hikes to bring the ECB’s main rate toward 4% at best, but afterward, monetary policy easing will likely occur.

US inflation

Analysts predict that average consumer price inflation will be 5.3% in 2023, down from 2022’s 9.59% and 2021’s 2.44%. Falling inflation may force the Fed to abandon its aggressive monetary policy tightening. 

US ISM surveys (PMI)

The ISM manufacturing index, also called PMI, measures how much production changes from one month to the next across the whole US economy. Every month, the report comes out on the first business day. So, it is one of the first things investors and business people get to know about how the economy is doing.

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As of recently, both the manufacturing and services sectors have weakened notably, falling below the 50.0 threshold, which divides contraction and expansion in the economy. It looks like the new year could start with a recession, induced mainly by the soaring interest rates and elevated inflation, as consumers are massively losing their purchasing power. 

If the US (global) economy enters a severe recession, the Fed will be forced to loosen monetary policy, confirming the current market expectations. 

FOMC Meetings event dates 
January 31st – February 1st 2023 
March 21st – 22nd* 2023 
May 2nd – 3rd 2023 
June 13th – 14th* 2023 
July 25th – 26th 2023 
September 19th – 20th* 2023 
October 31st – November 1st 2023 
December 12th – 13th* 2023 
*meetings include new quarterly
 economic and inflation projections
 
  
ECB meetings event dates 
February 2nd, 2023 
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
March 16th, 2023 
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
May 4th, 2023 
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
June 15th, 2023 
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
July 27th, 2023 
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
September 14th, 2023 
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
October 26th, 2023 
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Athens, Greece
December 14th, 2023 
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
  
US inflation event dates 
Reference month                            Release date
December 2022

January 12th, 2023

January 2023February 14th, 2023
February 2023March 14th, 2023
March 2023April 12th, 2023
April 2023May 10th, 2023
May 2023June 13th, 2023
June 2023July 12th, 2023
July 2023August 10th, 2023
August 2023September 13th, 2023
September 2023October 12th, 2023
October 2023November 14th, 2023
November 2023December 12th, 2023
  
US ISM surveys event dates 
ManufacturingServices

January 4th 2023

January 6th 2023
February 1st 2023February 3rd 2023
March 1st 2023March 3rd 2023
April 3rd 2023April 5th 2023
May 1st 2023May 3rd 2023
Semi-Annual Economic Forecast 

May 8th 2023

May 8th 2023

June 1st 2023

June 5th 2023
July 3rd 2023July 6th 2023
August 1st 2023August 3rd 2023
September 1st 2023September 6th 2023
October 2nd 2023October 4th 2023
November 1st 2023November 3rd 2023
December 1st 2023December 5th 2023
Semi-Annual Economic Forecast 

December 15th 2023

December 15th 2023

Tomáš is a financial reporter with US markets as his main field. He actively started in finance only recently, however has been surrounded by many analyst and reporting professiona...

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