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Quidel Corporation (QDEL) – basic stock analysis

QUIDEL develops, manufactures, and markets diagnostic testing solutions for applications in infectious diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, and toxicology worldwide. It was founded in 1979 (San Diego, California). Our estimated price for the company is around 609 USD. However, the extremely negative target price estimate is about 230 USD.

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 2.92% and -2.69% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 1.35% and -1.23% . Yesterday’s return was only 6.59% , which is between the first and second standard deviation. Our scoring is currently negative (-2) for the month-on-month change and -1 for price indexation. This means that we are in the middle of a negative short-term phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The estimated cycles development based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.

QDEL daily price indexation Source: WALFIR

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, only long-term MA is currently in a bearish sentiment. Shorter MAs could support the market price.

QDEL daily price development Source: WALFIR

Our estimated Earnings Power Value (EPV) is 182 USD and the Growth Value (GV) is approximately the same. The potential opportunity for growth is based on the value of EPV and % of reinvested earnings. NAV is represented by the Total Stockholders' equity. The following chart uses the value from the last fiscal year.

QDEL intrinsic value estimation Source: WALFIR

We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (5.24% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 5.67% , which is close to the average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -6.00% and 6.00% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

QDEL daily return distribution Source: WALFIR

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (10.00% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

QDEL daily low to high distribution Source: WALFIR

The basic technical analysis points to a medium-term upward trend, as the market price creates higher highs and higher lows. Currently, it has also rebounded from the uptrend line (blue line). Since its peak in 2020, the market price has fallen by 66% and almost reached the psychological level of 100 USD . According to our estimate of intrinsic value, the market price is currently well below the negative (230 USD – red highlight) scenario. For bulls, the supply zone (red rectangle) could be critical, where is also the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.60% . Staying above the moving averages will be very important for positive sentiment.

QDEL basic technical analysis Source: TradingView

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...


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