Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 2.92% and -2.69% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 1.35% and -1.23% . Yesterday’s return was only 6.59% , which is between the first and second standard deviation. Our scoring is currently negative (-2) for the month-on-month change and -1 for price indexation. This means that we are in the middle of a negative short-term phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The estimated cycles development based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, only long-term MA is currently in a bearish sentiment. Shorter MAs could support the market price.
Our estimated Earnings Power Value (EPV) is 182 USD and the Growth Value (GV) is approximately the same. The potential opportunity for growth is based on the value of EPV and % of reinvested earnings. NAV is represented by the Total Stockholders' equity. The following chart uses the value from the last fiscal year.
We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (5.24% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 5.67% , which is close to the average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -6.00% and 6.00% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (10.00% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
The basic technical analysis points to a medium-term upward trend, as the market price creates higher highs and higher lows. Currently, it has also rebounded from the uptrend line (blue line). Since its peak in 2020, the market price has fallen by 66% and almost reached the psychological level of 100 USD . According to our estimate of intrinsic value, the market price is currently well below the negative (230 USD – red highlight) scenario. For bulls, the supply zone (red rectangle) could be critical, where is also the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.60% . Staying above the moving averages will be very important for positive sentiment.