Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.57% and -1.53%, respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.82% and -0.72%. Yesterday’s return was -2.10%, which is slightly below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently neutral (0) for the month-on-month change and -3 for price indexation. This means that we are in the extreme of a negative short-term phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3. The estimated development of cycles based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, all moving averages are currently in extreme bearish sentiment.
Our estimated Earnings Power Value (EPV) is 497 USD and the Growth Value (GV) is about the same. The potential opportunity for growth is based on the value of EPV and % of reinvested earnings. NAV is represented by the Total Stockholders’ equity. The following chart uses the value from the last fiscal year.
We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (2.80%) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 5.03%, which almost twice the average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -3.50% and 3.50%) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (4.50% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
The basic technical analysis points to a dynamic decline in the market price in the beginning of this month. However, it is still very close to the important demand zone (green rectangle), where is also the retracement level of Fibonacci 61.80%. According to our estimate of intrinsic value, the market price is currently very far from the negative (291 USD – red highlight) scenario. In addition, the psychological level of 200 USD could be an important support for the bulls. The short-term upward rebound could stop at around 260 USD, where is also the retracement level of Fibonacci 50.00%.