Saxo Bank set an outrageous target
The bullion traded nearly half a percent higher Thursday, erasing Monday’s sharp losses. Investors pushed the price back above the important $1,800 resistance.
Global economic insecurity and heightened geopolitical tensions will produce an economy that prioritizes local suppliers and price controls. This is assuring that inflation will stay stubbornly high beyond 2023.
This scenario is favorable for gold, with Saxo Bank predicting an “outrageous” price of $3,000 per ounce. Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at the Danish bank, said in the report:
“2023 is the year that the market finally discovers that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future.”
If inflation becomes elevated, investors will be compelled to review breakeven rates, according to Hansen. Any decline in expected real interest rates should undermine the US dollar.
Hansen noted that gold has been disappointing for the majority of 2022, as investors remain confident that central banks will be able to return inflation to 2%. Nevertheless, he cautioned that 2023 might be the year when that trust is questioned.
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Another reason is a recovery in China’s economy, which would increase demand for raw materials across the board. In addition to the Federal Reserve’s expectation that its tightening cycle would conclude early in 2023, Saxo Bank predicts that the danger of a worldwide recession will drive central banks to inject liquidity back into global financial markets.
No significant demand for gold
According to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) figures, the gold market struggles to generate significant optimistic sentiment as hedge funds unloaded their bullish bets just before its bullish breakout move last week.
According to several analysts, the most recent data stays consistent with gold market sentiment. Although the Federal Reserve has stated that it intends to moderate the pace of its interest rate rises, it is anticipated that the terminal rate will remain over 5% for the foreseeable future.
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Numerous observers have noticed that gold is benefiting from hedge funds covering their short positions, but positive enthusiasm for the precious metal remains low. Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, believes the following:
“People are not saying let’s get long gold; they are saying let’s not be short.”
Still, gold is facing some serious challenges as it tries to jump above the 200-day moving average, which coincides with the psychological level of $1,800. If bulls are successful, the next target should be near $1,820, where last week’s highs are.
Alternatively, the short-term support could be at November’s high of $1,780. As long as gold trades above it, the short-term trend could be bullish.
Gold futures 1D chart, source: tradingview.com, author’s analysis