Forex outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/AUD, and CHF/JPY

Last time we analyzed a few currency pairs as there were some trading signals and now the situation requires another look at these three currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/AUD, and CHF/JPY. You can also have a look at crypto analysis here.

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EUR/USD outlook

The Eurodollar showed signs of bottoming out at parity (1.0000) and looked like it was at the beginning of a giant uptrend. It almost reached the mentioned first profit target of 1.04, but then it declined to the trend line 2. EUR/USD is still in a strong downtrend, and the strong bounce from trend line 1 proved it as engulfing pattern was formed right after the bounce. 

So, where do we go from here? If trend line 2 is broken, Eurodollar could go to parity again or even lower if Fed decides to support more rate hikes. On the other hand, if the market bounces up from trend line 2 upward, we could see a breakout of the trend line 1 and at least a minor correction above the 1.04 level after this long downtrend. 

^{EURUSD daily chart, source: tradingview.com}

GBP/AUD outlook

GBP/AUD was in a downtrend for a long time if you look at the weekly chart, starting at the beginning of 2022. The market broke the consolidation downward below the level of 1.7180, but this could be a nasty fakeout. Many long positions probably have been accumulated at that support zone, and now that the possible market trap is complete, GBP/AUD might be ready for a big move. 

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GBP/AUD stopped at 1.7000, quietly moving to the north as divergence forms. This huge divergence could send this currency pair flying as it did last time in summer 2020. However, it is too soon to make any conclusions because there should be another confirmation signal (huge engulfing or pin bar would be best) to get bullish. GBP/AUD can still hit level 1.7180 and go even lower below 1.7000.

_{gbpaud daily chart, source: tradingview.com}

CHF/JPY outlook

CHF/JPY moved to the highest level since 2015 when USD/CHF depegged from parity, and Swiss Frank rapidly grew in value overnight. Now it even got above this level, to a new high of 144. The important question remains whether this is a breakout or a false one. Let’s look at the daily timeframe to see more in-depth.

^{chfjpy weekly chart, source: tradingview.com}

CHF/JPY stopped for a while above the critical level 139 and started creating lower highs and lower lows, with a next possible move to the marked area 134-135. While the market is showing signs of a reversal, it is still in a massive uptrend and above the important level. Therefore, if CHF/JPY gets above the previous lower high, the uptrend will probably continue. On the other hand, if the market bounces downwards now, there is a potential move of about 600 pips.

^{chfjpy daily chart, source: tradingview.com}

Conclusion

This forex outlook is mainly primarily looking at currency pairs from technical analysis, so do not forget that solid fundamental events can influence it.