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AUD/USD statistical and technical analysis

Today’s words from the RBA governor didn’t support the currency. Lowe doesn’t see a rate hike before 2024. The current price of the AUD/USD exchange rate is 0.7318 (September 14, 2021). In August, it rebounded from an important zone. We will therefore move on to statistical and technical analyzes.

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 0.54% and -0.57% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.28% and -0.27% . Yesterday´s return was 0.23% , well below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently negative (-1 ) for the month-on-month change and -2 for price indexation. This means that we are in the negative phase of the cycle in both scorings, which range from -3 up to 3 . The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.

AUD/USD daily price indexation Source: WALFIR

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. According to the short-term MA, AUD/USD is in a bullish sentiment because it acts as exchange rate support. In the case of growth, longer-term MAs could be an important resistance for the pair.

AUD/USD daily price development Source: WALFIR

Since our last analysis, there have been more downward trends with a maximum of 4 consecutive days. However, the total maximum in the measured period is 11 days. The upward trends did not exceed more than 3 days in the same period with a maximum in the total measured period of 7 days. We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (0.93% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 0.69% , which is slightly below the average value. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -1.2% and 1.2% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

AUD/USD daily return distribution Source: WALFIR

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (1.75% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

AUD/USD daily low to high distribution Source: WALFIR

Basic technical analysis still supports medium-term bearish sentiment as the exchange rate creates lower lows and lower highs. This pair again fell below the important psychological level of 0.7400 , where is also the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.60% . AUD/USD is also very close to the short-term moving average. We can also clearly see the bearish divergence between the market price and the RSI. In the event of a further decline, the demand zone (green rectangle) with the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.20% and the psychological level of 0.7000 could again be as important for bulls as in August.

AUD/USD basic technical analysis Source: TradingView

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...

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