AUD/USD on a trend line
After the US dollar showed strength last few months, it finally retreated. The US dollar declined against all currency pairs, including AUD/USD, which rose from 0.6200 to 0.672. This currency pair currently offers a selling opportunity as it reaches the trend line and resistance in a downtrend.
Related article: Forex outlook: USD/CAD, EUR/AUD and USD/JPY
However, it’s important to wait for confirmation through some pin bar or engulfing pattern on a daily or four-hour timeframe. A bearish divergence suggests AUD/USD could move downwards soon, but the signal is still not confirmed. That is why traders should stay cautious because the US dollar started weakening drastically since better-than-expected inflation data.
Technically and fundamentally speaking, AUD/USD should head lower, but it could still break the trend line and go to 0.7000 because of strong bullish momentum. Traders should definitely wait for more confirmations as GBP/USD, and EUR/USD also attacked months not seen highs.
USD/CHF is currently oversold
Out of all currency pairs containing the US dollar, USD/CHF probably dropped the hardest. This currency pair fell by more than 700 pips in just two weeks. This downtrend will probably continue in the future, but there is a clear buy signal for those who are not afraid to go against the trend. USD/CHF bounced back from vital support of 0.9371, and the OsMA indicator signalled a significantly oversold market.
As the drop is too strong and too fast, traders await some form of recovery. This could bring USD/CHF somewhere between 0.9600 and 0.9650 in the next few weeks. However, some form of a false breakout at the support or consolidation may come as well, so make sure your stoploss is not tight.
NZD/JPY forming giant triple top
NZD/JPY is forming one of the largest triple tops in the forex market. This triple top has been forming since the beginning of 2022, potentially creating the last leg down in the near future. NZD/JPY clearly failed to get above a resistance of 87.75, and fell lower. The Japanese yen also strengthened against other currencies, which implies another move could come soon.
The OsMA indicator shows the market could go upward, but it’s not really a valid signal at the moment. NZD/JPY is forming a lower high and possibly a 123 pattern. In the next few weeks, traders can expect this currency pair to fall somewhere in the zone 80-81, offering a profit target of approximately 500 pips. The move downward could come despite the obvious bullish Doji candle.
A weaker dollar surprised many traders, but a pullback is anticipated as this move was against a long-term trend. This is where traders who are prepared can profit, but it’s necessary to adjust the risk properly as nothing is certain.