The average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 0.44% and -0.45% , respectively. Yesterday´s return was -0.60% . Our scoring is currently -1 for the month-on-month change and -1 for price indexation. The estimated cycles development based on our analytical systems is shown in the following chart.
Source: Walfir
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. EUR/USD is in bearish sentiment in the case of monthly and 6-month MAs and still in bullish sentiment according to the annual MA, as we can see in the chart below.
Source: Walfir
There have been upward and downward trends that have not exceeded more than 3 consecutive days since November. To estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions, we could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range), obtained from daily data. The current value is 0.76% . Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -1% and 1% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle. To estimate Profit Targets, we could use the last decile of low to high returns (1.25% ), which is shown in the second chart below.
Source: Walfir 
Source: Walfir
Basic technical analysis supports bearish sentiment after a day at high volumes (red ellipse). However, EUR/USD is currently in the demand zone (green rectangle) with a strong bottom, where the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.20% is. In addition, the longer-term MA is also close to the exchange rate. The divergence between price development and RSI could also motivate short-term bulls and bring the upward rebound to a psychological level of 1.2000.
Source: TradingView
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