Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.76% and -1.96% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.91% and -0.93% . Yesterday’s return was 2.41% , well below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently positive (1 ) for the month-on-month change and 1 for price indexation. Therefore, it is currently in a slightly positive phase of the cycle. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 . The estimated development of cycles based on our analytical system is shown in the following chart.
Source: WALFIR
Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, all WTI MAs currently support bullish sentiment. In the event of a decline, the 6 months MA may be the price support.
Source: WALFIR
Since our last analysis , there have been stronger upward trends with a maximum level of 4 consecutive days, even the price is much lower. The maximum for the last 3 years is 8 days. Downward trends did not exceed more than one day in the same period. However, the maximum decrease was 11 days in the measured period. We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (3.30% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 3.35% , which is almost average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -3.60% and 3.60% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.
Source: WALFIR
We could use the last decile of low to high returns (6.00% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.
Source: WALFIR
Basic technical analysis points to positive sentiment this month, as the market price creates higher highs and higher lows. The last uptrend leg rose by more than 10 USD after a rebound from the psychological level of 68.00 , supported by long-term MA. However, there is a bearish divergence between price development and the RSI that has developed in recent weeks. The psychological level of 77.00 along with the short-term MA could be an important resistance to the market price.
Source: TradingView
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