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CPI rose to 5% in May – What to expect

The year-on-year change in CPI reaches a whopping 5.0% in May. This, too, has been caused by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus.

However, it should not be forgotten that this is also due to the fact that in 2020 CPI growth was much smaller than it is now. This is the largest growth in CPI since August 2008. Month-on-month growth is also very interesting.

CPI Source: Bloomberg

A very interesting year-on-year growth shows core inflation, which is cleaned of food and energy. Here we can monitor the largest growth since 1992. Of course, in these years, the main rates (Fed funds) were much higher, at about 20%. In this case, the situation cannot be compared.

Core CPI Source: Zerohedge via Bloomberg

If we want to look at what makes this growth the largest, below we provide a table of data. We can also confirm from this data that fiscal and monetary stimulus has had the most impact on energy and commodity prices. Transport services and used cars and trucks have also increased significantly. We are likely to see such increased numbers throughout 2021, but from this point of view there are already signals from the Fed, the so-called "rumors" about tapering - that is, a reduction in the amount of asset purchases.

CPI composition Source: Zerohedge

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...

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