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XAU/USD statistical and technical analysis

Better than expected US retail sales data pushed the US dollar up. As a result, the price of precious metals has fallen. The current price of XAU/USD - Gold Spot US Dollar is 1 754 (September 18, 2021). This commodity is currently being traded again in an important area. Let’s now look at statistical and technical analyzes.

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 0.76 % and -0.77% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.40% and -0.36% . Friday´s return was 0.04% , well below the first standard deviation. It was a less volatile day than the previous one. Our scoring is currently neutral (0 ) for the month-on-month change and 0 for price indexation. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 , which means that we estimate the middle of the declining phase of the cycle. The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical system is shown in the following chart.

XAU/USD daily price indexation Source: WALFIR

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. XAU/USD fell below the short-term MA again last week. Therefore, as we can see in the chart below, all MAs currently support bearish sentiment.

XAU/USD daily price development Source: WALFIR

Since our last analysis, we have witnessed more upward trends, with the maximum level reaching 3 consecutive days. However, the maximum increase was 8 days in the measured period. The downward trend in recent weeks have not exceeded more than 2 days. The maximum for the last 3 years is 6 days. We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (1.40% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 2.03% , which is above its long-term average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -1.6% and 1.6% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

XAU/USD daily return distribution Source: WALFIR

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (2.50% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

XAU/USD daily low to high distribution Source: WALFIR

Basic technical analysis supports short-term bearish sentiment after Thursday’s dynamic decline. XAU/USD is currently very close to the support level of 1 760 , where is also the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.00% . The price is also below short-term and long-term moving averages. If it continues to decline, the demand zone (green rectangle), where are also the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.80% and the psychological level of 1 700 , could also provide some support for the bulls, as in March and early August.

XAU/USD basic technical analysis Source: TradingView

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...

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