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Platinum (XPT/USD) statistical and technical analysis

Platinum bounced up dynamically last week, as did other precious metals. It is above the important zone again. The current price of XPT/USD – Platinum Spot US Dollar is 1 029 (January 21, 2021). Let us therefore now turn to statistical and technical analyzes.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Based on a long-term analysis of historical data, the average positive and negative daily returns are approximately 1.04% and -1.08% , respectively. The estimated daily return in both directions based on their probability of occurrence is 0.53% and -0.51% . Friday´s return was -0.99% , which below the first standard deviation. Our scoring is currently neutral (0 ) for the month-on-month change and 0 for price indexation. Both scorings range from -3 up to 3 and are currently in the extreme of an ascending phase of the cycle. The development of the estimated cycles based on our analytical system is shown in the following chart.

XPT/USD daily price indexation Source: WALFIR

Different moving averages (MAs) help us better identify trends across multiple time frames. We use 3 basic MAs to find out which sentiment dominates each horizon. The purple line represents the monthly , the green line the 6 months and the yellow line the annual moving average. As we can see in the chart below, bearish sentiment currently only supports long-term MA. In the event of a decline, monthly and 6-month MAs can be the price support.

XPT/USD daily price development Source: WALFIR

Since our last analysis , we have witnessed more upward trends. They did not exceed 4 days. The total maximum in the measured period (last 3 years) is 6 days. Downward trends did not exceed more than 2 days in the same period. However, the total maximum for the last 3 years is 7 days. We could use the average long-term ATR (Average True Range) obtained from daily data (3.10% ) to estimate Stop Loss orders for our positions. The current value is 3.27% , which is almost average. Approximately 90% confidence interval (return between -2.40% and 2.40% ) is shown in the histogram below by a red rectangle.

XPT/USD daily return distribution Source: WALFIR

We could use the last decile of low to high returns (3.60% ) to estimate Profit Targets, as shown in the chart below.

XPT/USD daily low to high distribution Source: WALFIR

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Since the beginning of this year, the basic technical analysis has supported bullish sentiment, as XPT/USD have dynamically rebounded from an important area of the demand zone (green rectangle), where are the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.00% and the psychological level of 1 000.00 . However, the market price is currently testing the long-term moving average along with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. In addition, there is a divergence between the price development and the RSI created since November.

XPT/USD daily technical analysis Source: TradingView

WALFIR Technologies is one of the three divisions of WALFIR s.r.o., which is based in Slovakia. The primary interests of this division are analytical, quantitative, and algorithmic...

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