Many people called Bitcoin (BTC) dead in the last months of 2022, but it pumped over 50% since the start of 2023. Bitcoin touched the $25,000 mark for the first time since August 2022, surprising crypto investors as well as haters.
Bitcoin at 6-month highs
Bitcoin skyrocketed from $15,500 in late November to $25,000 on the 16th of February, showing a remarkable bounce in a never-ending bear market. Now investors are debating whether the bull market has already started or if this is just a bull trap.
It’s evident that Bitcoin had to jump sooner or later, as many signals were pointing to a possible bottom. However, as BTC hit $25,000, it is likely to take a break after such a fast rally.
It rose to an important resistance along with the moving average (EMA200) on a weekly resistance, which could send it lower temporarily. This may not last long.
Bitcoin weekly chart, source: tradingview.com, author’s analysis
Bitcoin clearly pulled back from the support of $21,310 and EMA200, signalling a continuation of the market rally. The speed of the uptrend may slow down, but the strong momentum could draw Bitcoin even to $30,000 in the upcoming months.
Bitcoin from daily perspective
This is the first time since March 2022, when Bitcoin jumped above EMA200. However, it was a bull trap back then. Now the breakout above EMA200 was confirmed with a bounce and a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe.
Bitcoin daily chart, source: tradingview.com, author’s analysis
Bitcoin nicely bounced back up from EMA200 in a 4-hour timeframe too, with a divergence confirming another possible move higher. A small pullback to $23,000 or even $22,000 is possible, but still, Bitcoin is inclined to break the $25,000 level according to all the bullish factors.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart, source: tradingview.com, author’s analysis
The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 61, which points to positive sentiment, dangerously heading into greed. With a range between 0 and 100, this is a little high with possible correction in the future.
However, the market correction downward might occur in April or May soonest, so there’s still plenty of room to grow for crypto.
The crypto market rose along with the stock market, still showing a significant correlation with each other. But the lasting of this uptrend is still questionable as interest rates remain very high, and inflation has only recently started to pull back down.