What does the theory say?
In the world of cryptocurrencies, but also in the trading world itself, the following tends to be true. If the chart consolidates under strong resistance or ATH, the longer it stays below this level, the higher the chance for a breakout. Why is that true? Simply because if we are at the levels of resistance and the sellers are not able to push the price lower, it is only a matter of time before the stronger buyers push the price over the resistance.
We also have to count in the whales, which are accumulating the long positions and that can take some time. Thus, the longer it takes for the breakout to happen, the higher the chance that it will happen sooner rather than later.
In December 2020 it took us some time as well to break the previous ATH. After the ATH was broken, it took almost 20 days for consolidation to end and for major breakout to happen to new, significantly higher, ATH levels.
Previous ATH of Bitcoin
Current situation
Currently I believe that unless we fall below the level of around 56 456 USD, there is a huge chance that we can soon see new ATH. The first target that I would be watching is 70 128 USD, with the next one of around 79 450 USD. Once we overcome the ATH with a strong breakout, then we can get to “price discovery” stage and see a rather significant upward movement, such as the one on Tesla right now.
Bitcoin 1D chart
4h chart
Looking at shorter timeframe, we can see a strong support, which I do not believe that will be invalidated in coming days. On contrary, more indicators and on-chain data point to the end of consolidation period and strong breakout leg.
Bitcoin 4H chart
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