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Bitcoin Friday: BTC still has not done the crucial move

Today we will look once more at the connection between Bitcoin and S&P 500, since in the last few days it seems to be getting stronger.

Never changing situation of Bitcoin?

Since the last time Bitcoin has severely broken down, not much has happened. We have been mostly consolidating for the past two weeks. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the situation does not look great. We have not broken down yet, but we are creating lower Highs and we have not broken any significant trendline upwards. This means that it is really hard to try to find any signs of bullishness, since there are almost no confirmations of bulls being in charge. No upward trendline was broken, nor higher High was created and BTC is still simply testing the same support. When it comes to TA rules, the longer chart keeps testing the same level, the greater the chance that it will not last.

However, I do like the overall look of both, Bitcoin as well as altcoins. Both of them have nice structures that are ready to explode once we get the first big impulse. Yet, it does not matter if the impulse does not come. Most of the coins are at very solid support levels and it is even possible that we are creating local bottom, but we see no crucial upward movement. The fact that we are simply at a support level, does not necessarily mean that we are going to be pushed back up. It is only a higher chance of getting the needed push, but it has not come yet.

Bitcoin creating lower lows - 4h chart Bitcoin creating lower highs – 4h chart

BTC is rising only if S&P 500 is rising

This is something that I have been looking at since the downward break. There are two important moments that we need to mention. First one is the fact that during the weekend, the equities are not being traded. That is one of the good times for Bitcoin to make the decisive move by itself and does not need to be bothered by indices. However, what happened last week? Absolutely nothing. Bitcoin barely moved. This week we saw only one noticeable upward movement and that was on Wednesday during the FED meeting, during which both the S&P 500 and BTC were both rising, which was the second important moment. However, if the S&P 500 is not rising, Bitcoin seems to be having a tougher time.

That means that as of now Bitcoin looks like if it was not able to move by itself. While we saw a new ATH at S&P 500 yesterday, after which a dip occurred, Bitcoin is far from reaching its previous ATH levels (69 000 dollars).

S&P 500  - 4h chart S&P 500 – 4h chart


As I mentioned earlier, I will be waiting for some kind of impulse with Bitcoin. Unless Bitcoin does something significant, I will try to not enter into many positions. We are at the support levels which might look promising to enter, however, the market has not shown any will or power to move up.

Jakub is a crypto trader and founder of Trader 2.0 project, which helps hundreds of traders from central Europe to understand cryptocurrency trading and its challenges. Jakub not o...


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