The whole world has been affected by the situation in Ukraine. We can come to several different conclusions based on what we see happening. For instance, we know that the situation is changing daily. We know that Bitcoin does not have a clear trend – rising for a while, then falling for a while. That clearly shows what trading style we should have. Long term trades do not have any promising potential, because the situation is changing daily. Thus, what makes the most sense is to try to trade on short time frames, maybe up to 48 hours per trade. And that is what I will show you today.
From liquidity to liquidity
What I trade now are the liquidity zones and volumes. We are moving from one price level to another price level. While Bitcoin does not have a clear trend, I am trying to switch between longs and shorts and not stay in a position for longer than 24 – 48 hours. There is no point in trying to have a long term analysis for Bitcoin. Except for Ukraine, the short term will also bring Fed meeting, which can drastically change any outlook for a long term analysis.
Related: Gold, War and FED
If we look at the current state of Bitcoin, the most likely scenario is a comeback to the levels of 37 951 – 38 928 USD. Within this area are huge volumes and price can stay there longer. That is why I believe that the price is potentially falling back to those levels. The trajectory of the probable movement is highlighted in blue.
4h chart of Bitcoin, Source: Author´s analysis, tradingview.com
Daily chart does not show anything new
Personally, I do not expect any significant rises in the coming weeks. I have mentioned several times that Bitcoin is trying to create a solid bottom formation, but I still cannot clearly see the bottom pattern. I believe that for some time Bitcoin will not have any clear trend and will mostly move to the side, with a bit of a downward movement. There seems to be a very strong resistance ahead between the price levels of 44 755 – 46 335 USD.
Daily chart of Bitcoin, Source: Author´s analysis, tradingview.com
With the current state in the world, there are definitely things and events that are more important than Bitcoin. However, I still hope that this analysis helped all of you. Do not enter into long term trades as the short term movements are not clear. Short term trades are the least likely to be affected by external factors or fundaments now.